About Us

November 2009


MakeNFLplayoffs.com calculates the chance that any NFL team will make the playoffs based on their record after each week of the season. This is too difficult a calculation for a human to make with more than a few weeks left in the season because of the large number of games remaining and the complexity of the NFL tie breaking procedures.

The playoffs calculations are made by simulating the remaining games in the NFL season 100,000,000 times. We assume each team has about a 50% chance of winning each remaining game (with 0.21% chance of a tie). Commercial versions of our software allow the probability of each team winning each remaining game to be changed. Inquire if you are interested in these products.

The software takes into account all the NFL tie breaker rules down to the coin flip. We want to thank Jon Zimmer of NFL Communications for helping us with technical questions regarding the NFL playoff tie breaking procedures. See www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures for a summary of these procedures.

The calculations are accurate to 0.01%.

Data from after any week of any NFL season since 2002 can be displayed. Use the Year pick list to select the year of the NFL season you wish to view. Use the Week pick list to select a week from the selected year to be viewed. Week 0 is before the season starts. Week 1 is after the first week of games has been played. Week 17 is after all games of the season have been played. All NFL seasons since 2002 have had 17 weeks of games. Use the View pick list to select one of the 35 ways to display the data.

The data is shown as a probability ranging from 0.00000 (0% chance) to 1.00000 (100% chance). Multiply the probabilities by 100 to convert to percentage.

The Division/Playoff View shows the probability that each team will win their division and the probability that each team will make the playoffs. The Win Division column shows the probability that each team will make the playoffs by winning their division. The Make Playoffs column shows the probability that each team will make the playoffs by either winning their division or being a wild card team.

The Detailed View shows the probability that each team will finish first to sixth in their conference and make the playoffs. Only division winners can finish from first to fourth. The1st column shows the probability that each team will finish with the best record in the conference and have a first round playoff bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The 2nd column shows the probability that each team will finish with the second best record among division winners in the conference and have a first round playoff bye and home field advantage in the second round of the playoffs. The3rd column shows the probability that each team will finish with the third best record among division winners in the conference and have a home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The4th column shows the probability that each team will finish with the fourth best record among division winners in the conference and have a home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The5th column shows the probability that each team will finish with the best record among non-division winners in the conference and be a road team in the first round of the playoffs (wild card team). 6th column shows the probability that each team will finish with the second best record among non-division winners in the conference and be a road team in the first round of the playoffs (wild card team).

The First Round View shows the probabilities that each team will make the playoffs and what that team will be doing in the first round of the playoffs. The1 st Round Bye column shows the probability that each team will finish with the best record in the conference or the second best record among division winners and have a first round playoff bye and home field advantage in the second round of the playoffs. The1 st Round Home column shows the probability that each team will finish with the third or fourth best record in the conference among division winners and have a home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The1 st Round Road column shows the probability that each team will finish with the best and second best records in the conference among non-division winners (wild card teams) and have a road game in the first round of the playoffs. TheMake Playoffs column shows the probability that each team will make the playoffs by either winning their division or being a wild card team.

The 32 Team Views show more information on each team. The top of the page shows the probability that the team will finish first to sixth in their conference and make the playoffs. The data is displayed in the same format as theDetailed View described above. The left side of the page shows the probability that the team will make the playoffs with various win-loss records (tie games are omitted) in the remaining games of the season. The right side of the page shows the probabilities of facing various opponents in the first round of the playoffs. TheMISS PLAYOFFS row is the probability that the team will not make the playoffs. The BYE row is the probability the team will finish with the best record in the conference or the second best record among division winners and have a first round playoff bye and home field advantage in the second round of the playoffs. Each row with a team name shows the probability that this team will be the first round playoff opponent.